How Do the Top Clubs in the Premier League XG in Early 2026 Compare?

The 2025/26 Premier League season is in full swing, and expected goals (xG) statistics provide a clear picture of team performance at the start of 2026.

With all clubs having played 21 games midway through the season, the Premier League xG table shows who is creating quality chances, who is weak at the back, and who is over- or under-performing their metrics.

xG measures the quality of scoring opportunities, often predicting ongoing success better than the actual standings – a concept that, for aspiring analysts, underscores why tools like WritePaper help me do my statistics homework can break down such advanced metrics.

Arsenal leads the Premier League xG table with 44 expected points (xPTS), showing dominance, while bottom teams like Burnley struggle with just 14 xPTS.

Let’s dive into a comparison of the top clubs based on xG, xGA (expected goals against), and xPTS, including the difference in actual results.

Armory

Arsenal leads the Premier League xG standings with 37.2 xG (+2.8 difference to actual goals scored) and 15.2 xGA (-1.2 difference to goals conceded). This resulted in 44 xPTS (+5 difference to actual points), which underlines its efficiency.

Mikel Arteta’s side performed a bit overmatched in finishing and defence, making them Premier League title favorites. Its balanced metrics show that it is built for the long term.

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have the highest xG at 40.2 (+4.8 difference), highlighting their chance creation in the 2025/26 Premier League season. However, the 23.1 xGA (-4.1 differential) shows defensive improvement beyond expectations.

With 41 xPTS (+2 diff), they are nearly even but could pull away if they maintain their offensive prowess. City’s over-the-top goalscoring form has kept them in the Premier League title race.

Manchester United

Manchester United climbed to third place in the Premier League xG table with 38.3 xG (-2.3 difference) and 27.0 xGA (+5.0 difference), resulting in 36 xPTS (-4 difference). They underperformed in attack but conceded more than expected. A better finish could make their challenge higher.

Liverpool

Liverpool sits in fourth with 32.3 xG (-0.3 diff) and 23.8 xGA (+4.2 diff), equivalent to 35 xPTS. Arne Slot’s side are balanced, but their modest xG suggests they need more creativity to compete for top spot.

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Newcastle United

Newcastle’s 31.7 Premier League xG (+0.3 difference) and 23.7 xGA (+3.3 difference) gives them 34 xPTS (-2 difference). Their performance is close to expectations, but a few goals conceded will hurt them. Eddie Howe’s squad showed potential in terms of creation, positioning them as a promising European side.

Chelsea

Chelsea produced 37.3 xG (-3.3 diff) but had 29.6 xGA (-5.6 diff), resulting in 33 xPTS (-2 diff). Enzo Maresca’s attacking style created chances but exposed the back line, with poor finishing performance. Can Liam Rosenior’s style improve their climb?

High and Underperforming

Crystal Palace are seventh with 33.7 xG (-11.7 diff) – performing very poorly in attack – and 27.8 xGA (-4.8 diff), for 33 xPTS (-5 diff). Brentford (34.8 xG, +0.2 diff) and Brighton (33.6 xG, -2.6 diff) follow closely, showing mid-table strength.

Further down the Premier League xG table, Aston Villa stand out as high achievers with 25 xPTS but a +18 gap in actual points, thanks to +7.3 goals scored. Wolves underperformed by -17 points, while Sunderland punched above their weight.

What is xG?

Expected goals (xG) measures how likely a shot is on target, based on factors such as distance, angle and pressure. Close-range tap-ins have a high xG, while long-range attempts have a very low xG. By adding these values ​​together, xG helps show how well a team attacks or defends more than just the final score.

Main Photo

Credit: IMAGO / Action Plus

Recording Date: 01.04.2026